GRANDES TEMAS - GRANDES HISTORIAS

E c u a d o r - S u d a m é r i c a

sábado, 23 de enero de 2016

UN FANTASMA PLANETARIO

Por Leonardo Parrini

Un fantasma recorre el mundo: los riesgos de una economía en crisis. Un espectro que evoca el mal año 2008 y que amenaza este 2016, año par que según se cree suelen ser mejores que los impares. Rasgos análogos evidencian una debacle económica internacional con el ocaso de la economía china que golpea a los emergentes -como Brasil por una baja de ingresos asiáticos-, crisis deflacionista, conflictos regionales y burbujas financieras. Nuestras crudas economías petroleras tiene su propio drama: el derrumbe del precio internacional del barril a niveles dramáticos.

El descenso de la realidad económica planetaria comenzó con la caída bursátil del gigante chino, dinamizador del crecimiento mundial en la última década. Luego de una fuerte demanda de materias primas asiáticas, ésta comenzó a la baja a partir del 2014 en plena ralentización de su actividad industria. Expertos como Oliver Garnier de la Societé General, denomina a este suceso aterrizaje forzoso, un fenómeno caracterizado por un brusco bajón de los valores bursátiles como reflejo de un deterioro del sector servicios que sostiene a la economía asiática.

Otro de los fantasmas que deambula el mundo es la disminución del consumo familiar como impacto de “la brutal caída de la riqueza financiera”, según el Observatorio Francés de Coyunturas Económicas. Los países emergentes viven su affaire local. Ante los bajos intereses financieros de EE.UU y Europa, el dinero acudió a los paraísos bancarios latinos que se muestran más rendidores. No obstante, los países emergentes acusan la falta de recursos asiáticos, situación que los vuelve “inciertos” a los ojos de las potencias capitalistas.

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Crisis petrolera

La causa del derrumbe petrolero es múltiple. La ralentización de la economía china, principal dinamizador de la actividad económica mundial de los últimos años, hizo disminuir su demanda energética, lo que impactó seriamente el volumen de ingresos de los productores de crudo. La caída del precio de los hidrocarburos se inició a principios del 2015 con un barril en $54,1 dólares, que en junio del mismo año subió a $55,7 para caer en julio a $44,5 y seguir el descenso hasta agosto a un precio de $35,7 el barril, según cifras oficiales. Las autoridades ecuatorianas, en la voz del mandatario Rafael Correa, atribuyen la caída de los precios del crudo a “factores geopolíticos” internacionales e impactan a una débil economía petrolera local que depende de un producto, cuyo costo producción por barril es de $39,0 y se lo vende hoy a menos de $ 20,0 dólares. 

La pregunta clave es: a quién beneficia y a quién perjudica el bajo precio del petróleo. La respuesta es obvia, perjudica a los países antagónicos a los EE.UU –como Rusia- y, beneficia a la potencia del norte. EE.UU aumentó su producción con la implementación de técnicas no convencionales para la extracción de petróleo, como la fracturación hidráulica o fracking. El aumento de la producción norteamericana determinó una menor demanda de crudo de importación hacia los EE.UU que estimula la caída de los precios. Los analistas consideran que “los productores árabes buscaron hacerse del mercado asiático por ser la principal fuente de consumo de materias primas. No obstante, el aumento de la producción de crudo vino acompañado con un estancamiento económico mundial, sobre todo por las dudas que la economía China plantea para el escenario global”. 

Las rivalidades geopolíticas son parte de la caída de los precios del crudo, puesto que los países más afectados por la baja en los precios se encuentran Rusia, Irán y Venezuela, competidores habituales de Arabia. Los expertos concluyen en que “nos encontramos en medio de una guerra de precios entre productores convencionales de petróleo, con Arabia Saudita al frente, en contra de los productores de petróleo no convencionales, particularmente norteamericanos que utilizan la técnica del fracking. Frente a este panorama, consideran “poco probable que veamos de nueva cuenta un precio del petróleo por encima de los cien dólares por barril”.  

Los economistas hablan de “una fase recesiva” en un mundo que está “atravesando un ciclo económico bajo”. Ecuador acusa el golpe con un crecimiento del 0,3% anual, según la CEPAL y al 04% en la versión del BCE, es decir, el país se encuentra “entre los mínimos estimados” en el periodo crítico. La bonanza iniciada en el 2007, -como reacción del desastre económico de los años ochenta y noventa-, merma la situación actual. Según estudios del BCE, los ciclos económicos giran alrededor de tres a cuatro años, situación que se ha confirmado en el Ecuador. Para capear el temporal, amerita realizar ajustes económicos a nivel familiar, cuyo endeudamiento tiene que ser medido y manejado con mucha prudencia, priorizando los gastos. Un factor subjetivo es importante: el miedo genera incertidumbre y provoca mayor miedo. El fantasma que recorre el mundo, no debe amilanar la voluntad de vivir y superar los momentos difíciles que nos caracteriza a los seres de carne y hueso.

2 comentarios:

  1. IS THE GOSPEL DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND? BY STEVE FINNELL

    The gospel plan salvation is not difficult to understand if you simply read it as God inspired it. Just read the Bible and believe it.

    The Scriptures only get hard to comprehend when men distort, pervert, and misrepresent the clear teachings of the Bible. Man's opinion can and does make if difficult for many to understand God's plan of salvation.

    IT IS NOT THAT DIFFICULT!

    Mark 16:16 Whoever believes and is baptized will be saved, but whoever does not believe will be condemned.

    1. Who believes will be saved.
    2. Who is baptized will be saved.
    3. Who does not believe will be condemned.

    It is not difficult to understand.

    John 8:24 I told you that you would die in your sins; if you do not believe that I am the one I claim to be, you will indeed die in your sins."

    1. If you do not believe Jesus is the Son of God you will die in your sins.

    There is nothing complicated about that statement.

    Acts 2:38 Peter replied, "Repent and be baptized, everyone of you, in the name of Jesus Christ so that your sins may be forgiven. And you will receive the gift of the Holy Spirit.

    1. Repent in order to have your sins forgiven.
    2. Be baptized in order to have your sins forgiven.
    3. After repentance and baptism you will receive the indwelling gift of the Holy Spirit Himself.

    There is nothing unfathomable presented here.

    Romans 10:9 That if you confess with your mouth, "Jesus is Lord," and believe in your heart that God raised him from the dead, you will be saved.

    1. You must acknowledge Jesus as Lord to be saved.
    2. You must believe in the resurrection of Jesus from the dead to be saved.

    Nothing mysterious about that.

    Galatians 3:26 You are sons of God through faith in Christ Jesus,

    1. Through faith in Christ Jesus you can become a son of God.

    Nothing troublesome in that statement.

    Galatians 3:27 for all of you who were baptized into Christ have clothed yourselves with Christ.

    1. Men become clothed with Christ by being baptized into Him.

    There is nothing confusing about that.

    Ephesians 2:8 For it is by grace you have been saved, through faith---and this not from from yourselves, it is a gift of God.

    1. We are saved because of God's grace. No man earns his salvation.
    2. We are saved through faith.
    3. The gift that God gives is salvation.

    There is nothing enigmatic found here.

    Acts 2:47 .....And the Lord added to their number daily those who were being saved.

    1. The Lord and only the Lord adds to His church.

    Nothing inexplicable in that.

    Acts 22:16 And now what are you waiting for? Get up, be baptized and wash your sins away, calling on his name.'

    1. Saul was still in his sins until he was baptized in water.

    You do not need a degree in theology to understand that.

    John 3:16 "For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life.

    1. Whoever believes in Jesus can have eternal life. Salvation is available to all who hear the gospel.

    There is nothing difficult about that.

    1 Peter 3:20-21...were saved through water. 21 and this water symbolizes baptism that now saves you also---not the removal of dirt from the body but the pledge of a good conscience toward God. It saves you by the resurrection of Jesus Christ,

    1. Water baptism is essential to salvation.
    2. Water baptism saves you if you have good conscience toward God.
    3. Without the resurrection of Jesus no one could be saved.

    You do not need a masters in education to understand that verse of Scripture.

    Is the gospel difficult to understand? No it is not. The gospel plan of salvation is only made complicated when presented using man-made traditions.

    WHAT MUST I DO TO BE SAVED?
    1. FAITH: John 3:16
    2. REPENTANCE: Acts 2:38
    3. CONFESSION: Romans 10:9
    4. WATER BAPTISM: Mark 16:16


    JUST READ THE BIBLE AND BELIEVE IT.

    (Scripture from: THE THOMPSON CHAIN-REFERENCE BIBLE "NEW INTERNATIONAL VERSION 1983)

    YOU ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW MY BLOG. hptt://steve-finnell.blogspot.com

    ResponderEliminar
  2. IS THE GOSPEL DIFFICULT TO UNDERSTAND? BY STEVE FINNELL

    The gospel plan salvation is not difficult to understand if you simply read it as God inspired it. Just read the Bible and believe it.

    The Scriptures only get hard to comprehend when men distort, pervert, and misrepresent the clear teachings of the Bible. Man's opinion can and does make if difficult for many to understand God's plan of salvation.

    IT IS NOT THAT DIFFICULT!

    Mark 16:16 Whoever believes and is baptized will be saved, but whoever does not believe will be condemned.

    1. Who believes will be saved.
    2. Who is baptized will be saved.
    3. Who does not believe will be condemned.

    It is not difficult to understand.

    John 8:24 I told you that you would die in your sins; if you do not believe that I am the one I claim to be, you will indeed die in your sins."

    1. If you do not believe Jesus is the Son of God you will die in your sins.

    There is nothing complicated about that statement.

    Acts 2:38 Peter replied, "Repent and be baptized, everyone of you, in the name of Jesus Christ so that your sins may be forgiven. And you will receive the gift of the Holy Spirit.

    1. Repent in order to have your sins forgiven.
    2. Be baptized in order to have your sins forgiven.
    3. After repentance and baptism you will receive the indwelling gift of the Holy Spirit Himself.

    There is nothing unfathomable presented here.

    Romans 10:9 That if you confess with your mouth, "Jesus is Lord," and believe in your heart that God raised him from the dead, you will be saved.

    1. You must acknowledge Jesus as Lord to be saved.
    2. You must believe in the resurrection of Jesus from the dead to be saved.

    Nothing mysterious about that.

    Galatians 3:26 You are sons of God through faith in Christ Jesus,

    1. Through faith in Christ Jesus you can become a son of God.

    Nothing troublesome in that statement.

    Galatians 3:27 for all of you who were baptized into Christ have clothed yourselves with Christ.

    1. Men become clothed with Christ by being baptized into Him.

    There is nothing confusing about that.

    Ephesians 2:8 For it is by grace you have been saved, through faith---and this not from from yourselves, it is a gift of God.

    1. We are saved because of God's grace. No man earns his salvation.
    2. We are saved through faith.
    3. The gift that God gives is salvation.

    There is nothing enigmatic found here.

    Acts 2:47 .....And the Lord added to their number daily those who were being saved.

    1. The Lord and only the Lord adds to His church.

    Nothing inexplicable in that.

    Acts 22:16 And now what are you waiting for? Get up, be baptized and wash your sins away, calling on his name.'

    1. Saul was still in his sins until he was baptized in water.

    You do not need a degree in theology to understand that.

    John 3:16 "For God so loved the world that he gave his one and only Son, that whoever believes in him shall not perish but have eternal life.

    1. Whoever believes in Jesus can have eternal life. Salvation is available to all who hear the gospel.

    There is nothing difficult about that.

    1 Peter 3:20-21...were saved through water. 21 and this water symbolizes baptism that now saves you also---not the removal of dirt from the body but the pledge of a good conscience toward God. It saves you by the resurrection of Jesus Christ,

    1. Water baptism is essential to salvation.
    2. Water baptism saves you if you have good conscience toward God.
    3. Without the resurrection of Jesus no one could be saved.

    You do not need a masters in education to understand that verse of Scripture.

    Is the gospel difficult to understand? No it is not. The gospel plan of salvation is only made complicated when presented using man-made traditions.

    WHAT MUST I DO TO BE SAVED?
    1. FAITH: John 3:16
    2. REPENTANCE: Acts 2:38
    3. CONFESSION: Romans 10:9
    4. WATER BAPTISM: Mark 16:16


    JUST READ THE BIBLE AND BELIEVE IT.

    (Scripture from: THE THOMPSON CHAIN-REFERENCE BIBLE "NEW INTERNATIONAL VERSION 1983)

    YOU ARE INVITED TO FOLLOW MY BLOG. hptt://steve-finnell.blogspot.com

    ResponderEliminar